Wednesday, July 7, 2010

FANTASY: Early Bird Catches the Worm

Note: For now, fantasy will refer to fantasy football until noted otherwise.

There is no such thing as fantasy overkill. For the most part, players are ranked based off of their performances in the years prior. So after the season, all of the numbers and stats used for analysis will already be available for the following the year. The only thing that fluctuates are the off-season variables.

These include:
  • Signing a free agent contract with a new team (Anquan Boldin)
  • Getting traded (Donovan McNabb)
  • Losing/Gaining a helpful teammate (ie lineman for protection/running lanes or wide receiver to catch your touchdown heaves)
  • Getting suspended (performance enhancing drugs, banned substances, criminal activity, raping college girls)
  • Contract holdout (Vincent Jackson and Chris Johnson)
  • Exceptionally strong camp, preseason performance (Darrius Heyward-Bey).
  • Injuries (Denver LT Ryan Clady out for season.)
The only thing to remember with early-bird mock drafts and draft research is that you MUST NOT fall in love with players. It's never too early to get a good idea of who you like and who you'd like to dismiss, but make sure that you keep up on all off-season variables and adjust your rankings accordingly.

As long as you stay fluid with your players rankings and are open to re-evaluate in light of new events, you will only be helping yourself by starting your research early. Just remember to do a few mock drafts close to your draft-date to be sure you have a current idea of where players are falling.

2 comments:

  1. Have you ever made the mistake of over-analyzing a player and taking him a bit too high in the draft? Starting too early on your research can lead to alot of overthinking come draft day...no?

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  2. I sure can. Tom Brady would be a prime example for that last year. As I warned above, do not get enamored with a player. Well, I fell in love with Tom Brady, selecting him in the late first round in all my leagues. Although he did perform at a high level through the season, he can hardly be considered better than a certain Tennessee runningback that I passed over. D'oh!

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