Some might see a rookie runningback a reach here, but Fresno State product Ryan Mathews is the biggest sure-thing rookie since Adrian Peterson. He's coming into a perfect situation for this 2010 season. He has a veteran, MVP quality quarterback in Philip Rivers directing one of the top offenses in the NFL. And with the team's lifeblood, LaDainian Tomlinson, exit via free agency this offseason and Darren Sproles unveiling his ceiling as a 3rd down runningback last year, Ryan Mathews steps in as the unquestioned starter.
He's an all-purpose player. He'll run between the tackles. He'll run outside the tackles. He'll get the goal-line carries and he has soft hands out of the backfield as well. His only struggle should be adjusting to pass-blocking at the NFL level. Once he makes that necessary leap, look for Sproles to have a harder time finding playing time, even in passing situations.
As a rookie, he lends even more value in a keeper/dynasty league and should be one of the most productive backs in the league for the foreseeable future.
- Expect: 1,200 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs, 30 receptions, 300 yards receiving, and 2 receiving TDs.
I would call this a bit of a reach in non-keeper leagues, but if you can retain Matthews for a few years, picking him at 8 could be a steal for upcoming drafts. Certainly won't lose goal-line carries to the smurf-sized Sproles. And even if blocking were an issue Sproles is not a stellar blocker. The Chargers should give him every chance possible to produce big numbers. Totals look good, with possibility for even more receptions and receiving yards.
ReplyDeleteMy apologies, I forgot to include his cakewalk of a schedule in the analysis.
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