As my cohort so beautifully explains, the Buffalo Bills are merely one piece away from legitimacy. The only problem is that piece happens to be the most important one, and often difficult to accurately project to the NFL level. It's clear that the quarterback rotisserie of Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm can not get the job done. Edwards has the most experience, but is a NFL bottom 10 quarterback at best. Edwards is an option as a backup quarterback in only the deepest of fantasy leagues. His ability to read the defense and throw over the linebackers is severely lacking, relying far too often on the dump pass support of runningback studs Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, and now CJ Spiller. Edwards seems primed as a career backup, and will consistently throw just as many touchdowns as interceptions. Stay clear.
- Projections: 3,000 passing yards, 15 TDs and 15 INTs
#1 wide receiver Lee Evans is a playmaker wasted on a poor team. He saw his receiving totals drop off drastically last year due to Edwards injury and having noodle-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick behind the helm. Evans is a deep threat, and benefits greatly from the long ball. His TDs did spike last year, but his receptions and yardage saw a career low (44 rec: 612 yds). With the relatively competent Trent Edwards behind center, Evans should return back to fantasy relevance and you should be able to snag him in the later rounds. Project him as a solid backup for your squad.
- Projections: 65 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, and 6 TDs
The runningback situation for the Buffalo is great for the Bills, awful for fantasy owners. They currently have three runningbacks on their roster that could potentially be starters for other teams. Fred Jackson is the safest pick, but just broke his hand. Projecting him as a receiving runningback, this injury becomes a little more important. Still he should still be a solid backup as a runningback, just because of his yardage totals.
- Projections: 1,000 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs
CJ Spiller has the most upside of all the backs and could become the starter by the end of the season. He is a dynamic player and can score from any point on the field. Even in the crowded backfield, it is hard to imagine the Bills keeping him buried in the depth chart for too long.
- Projections: 700 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 350 receiving yards, and 6 total TDs
Marshawn Lynch is generally regarded as the odd-man-out. He showed flashes of brilliance in his first couple seasons, but has become a headache. His production dropped last year after his 4 game suspension. Look for him to wind up at the bottom of the depth chart by the season's end.
- Projections: 400 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 175 receiving yards, and 3 total TDs.
For IDP's, there are two solid options on the Bills. Middle linebacker, Paul Posluszny is a dominant force when healthy. He's a tackling machine and should rack up near 100 tackles during the course of a full season.
- Projections: 100 solo tackles, 25 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 2 INTs, 2 forced fumbles and 6 passes defended.
The other option is second year free safety, Jairus Byrd. Byrd is a ballhawking playmaker and should contribute as a nice option for your DB position.
- Projections: 45 solo tackles, 20 assisted tackles, 7 INTs, and 14 passes defended.
Great analysis. I would have bumped Jackson's totals a little higher (as you might have) had he not broke his hand. I think Spiller will get the ball, but when healthy I see Jackson as the 1.
ReplyDeleteAnd by the way only Chad Pennington can be referred to as noodle arm. He alone gets that distinction.