Sunday, August 8, 2010

MOCK DRAFT: Pick 17 - DeAngelo WIlliams


DeAngelo Williams is a steal at the 17th pick. Over the past three seasons, Williams has averaged at least 5 yards per carry. He was a bit of a disappointment last season, failing to match his 2008 monster campaign of 1,600 total yards and 20 total TDs. Even with the presence of Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, DeAngelo Williams will still be a top producer for the offense, especially with such a young and unproven quarterback at center. He missed a couple games last season, but was effective when healthy. He's still likely to be used as a relative workhorse and should see around 240 carries on the season.

- Projections : 1,200 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs, 300 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs.

MOCK DRAFT: Pick 16 - Randy Moss


Randy Moss is getting up there in age but he still shows signs of being an elite receiver. With Wes Welker seemingly healthy, he takes a lot of pressure off of Moss and teams rarely can double cover Moss without negative effects. As long as Welker's knee holds up over the season it will allow Moss to catch the deep ball much easier. Julian Edelman is a sneaky underneath receiver as well so teams will have to crowd the middle against the Patriots offense. Tom Brady is in a contract year so I also expect him to do well. With all of this, Randy Moss is also probably playing for one of his final contracts in the NFL so he will want to maximize his possible value. Moss has been very consistent in his career and I think he will have another solid season in 2010.

-Projection: 80 receptions, 1,100-1,200 yards receiving, 10-12 TDs

MOCK DRAFT: Pick 15 - Aaron Rodgers


With the 15th pick, I'm coupling the guaranteed steady workload of Michael Turner with the potent offensive powerhouse, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers enjoyed a career year last year, posting the best fantasy output for quarterbacks in most fantasy formats. He tossed up similar number of touchdowns over the last few seasons (28 & 30), but his interception total was cut in half and he through for an additional 400+ yards on the season. The most appetizing part of Rodgers' fantasy output is his rushing production. He rushed for over 300 yards last season, with 5 rushing TDs. Added to his already respectable passing totals, his rushing production moves him from a great fantasy quarterback to 'elite' status.

The only issue with Rodgers is his tendency to take hits. He was sacked 50 times last year, and his durability might not prove to hold up under these conditions. The offensive line needs to protect their franchise quarterback much better this season. Still, as a middle second round pick, Rodgers is a pretty safe pick here.

- Expect: 4,400 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, 250 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs

Friday, August 6, 2010

FANTASY ANALYSIS: Atlanta Falcons


Michael Turner was bitten by the injury bug last season after amassing a whopping 367 carries in 2008. He his a bruising runner with above average speed and should be back to 100% in 2010. If he can stay healthy throughout the season Turner should return to elite fantasy statue and finish among the leaders in points this season. The Falcons are an emerging team and I think the coaching staff will rely heavily on the ground game this season to take some pressure off of Matt Ryan. Even with Jerious Norwood lurking behind Turner, he should have a great season and look for him to get the ball early and often. Turner will certainly be worthy of a mid to late first round pick.

-Projection: 1,300-1,400 yards rushing, 12-14 TDs

Roddy White still seems to be underrated by some, even as he gets better every year. He quietly puts up very respectable numbers and should do so again this season. He had some ups and downs last year but could see more consistency with Matt Ryan coming into his 3rd year. White is good in both standard and PPR formats, which warrants a late second to third round pick. If you can somehow grab White as your 2nd WR or a late number 1 you will be happy you did.

-Projection: 80-90 receptions, 1,200-1,300 yards receiving, 8-10 TDs

After a good rookie campaign, Matt Ryan did not seem to get much better after 2008. His 3rd year could be different though. Another year in the Falcons system, with an emerging Roddy White and a healthy Michael Turner, could prove to be exactly what he needs. On draft day he could come at a nice bargain price and is not a bad backup at all. If he slips through the cracks and is available late, try to grab him. Can provide some value in keeper/dynasty leagues as well.

-Projection: 3,300-3,500 yards passing, 22-26 TDs, 14 INTs

Easily one of the greatest TEs of our time, Tony Gonzalez puts up great numbers year in a year out. Even at age 34 he hasn't shown signs of slowing down, and is still a top TE in the NFL. Gonzalez has incredible hands, and can usually find some open space to catch the football. Unless his age somehow catches up to him this year, it should be another solid season for Gonzalez. He does lose a little value in keeper/dynasty leagues, however he is a guy you can get in the later rounds, who will produce every week for your fantasy team.

-Projection: 70-80 receptions, 900-1,000 yards receiving, 7 TDs

Last season Curtis Lofton posted and incredible season at MLB. With 133 total tackles (105 being solo) he had himself a very nice season. The Falcons do not have an overwhelming defense but Lofton is definitely the star and was able to prove that last season. If you pass on the high profile LBs, you should be able to grab Lofton real late, as his name seems to fly under the radar pretty well.

-Projection: 135-150 total tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 forced fumbles

Thursday, August 5, 2010

TEAM PREVIEW: Baltimore Ravens


9-7 in 2009

For the past few years the Baltimore Ravens have been defined by their defense, and in 2010 look for the offense to shoulder the workload. Don't get me wrong the Ravens still have a very good defense, especially the front 7, but the offense has caught up, and even surpassed the defense in talent this year.

Joe Flacco looks primed for a breakout season and has been granted all of the weapons to do just that. Ray Rice has established himself as a top-tier RB, with capable backups in McGahee and McClain. The knock on the Ravens offense had always been their WR corps but the addition of Anquain Boldin should put that to rest. He was a beast with Arizona, although his production may fall a bit he is still a true number 1 WR. Derrick Mason is coming back for his 800th season, one behind Brett Favre, and somehow still has some gas left in the tank. The Ravens also have a stout offensive line, with 2 monsters in Oher and Gaither. Look for a 50-50 balance on offense, with this the Ravens should put up a great deal of points on the opposition.

While the defense is aging, they are still a solid unit. Ed Reed needs to get on the field, as he is one of the biggest game-changers in the league at his position. The CB position will pose the most question marks. It is a young group with some injuries to deal with. The CBs do not have to be great but in a passing league they need to hold their own. The Ravens LBs are always very good even with Ray Lewis getting up there in years. Terrell Suggs is a manimal on the outside and the addition of Sergio Kindle should pay dividends immediately. Across the board the D-Line is good and will free up a lot of space for the LBs to fly around and make plays. While the defense is not what they used to be, it is still a strong unit and should be tough to run on.

The Ravens are a team who have taken some great strides in recent years, getting younger and much more talented on offense are the reason. If Flacco can take a big leap forward and utilize his weapons the Ravens could make a deep playoff run and build on last years beating of the Patriots. It should be a tight division but I think they edge out Cincinnati by one game or so.

-Prediction: 10-11 wins in 2010

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

FANTASY ANALYSIS: Houston Texans


Andre Johnson is widely regarded as the number 1 fantasy WR and is well deserving of this title. Johnson has been one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL over the past few years, even the year he was injured he was on track for a monster season. He is a physical freak and can do it all. Not only does he have a 6'3" frame, but Johnson has great speed and can jump out of the building. With the emergence of Matt Schaub, Johnson's value has increased even more. I have no problem taking Johnson in the mid to late first round of my draft and I think he is worthy of as high as the 6th pick in PPR leagues. If you can grab Johnson in your draft, barring injury, you will be very happy that you did.

-Projection: 105 receptions, 1,500 yards, 10-12 TDs

Matt Schaub put up a career year for the Texans in 2009. Before last season the Texans were never a very good team, and now they seem to have some great pieces in place to take the next step. Schaub is one of those crucial players and showed he could post great stats last year. In 2010 I see more of the same. Hopefully, Owen Dainels can come back healthy and the Texans can develop some sort of a ground game. Schaub is an accurate passer and he has a great arm. The offensive line is getting better, but Schaub still has a quick release which will benefit both parties. Schaub should be about the 4th or 5th QB taken in most drafts and is a safe bet for another very good season.

-Projection: 4,500 yards passing, 27-30 TDs, 14 INTs

Coming off an ACL injury in week 8, there are some questions about Owen Daniels. This could lead to him being a steal come draft day. When healthy, Daniels is one of the premier TEs in football. He has a great size and speed combo, with above average hands. Seems to be flying under the radar a bit this season because of his injury but I think he will come back and be fine. If you wait on a TE Daniels is not a bad guy to target, but try not to reach for him.

-Projection: 70 receptions, 800-900 yards receiving, 6 TDs

Ben Tate had a great career at Auburn and this season he should find the end-zone a good amount of times. He comes into Houston with the RB job up for grabs and has a chance to make an immediate impact in 2010. Tate looks even better in keeper/dynasty leagues as well. I would watch his progress in camp and preseason but he should see a good deal of time this year. If you can get him as your 4th back you should be in good shape.

-Projection: 800-900 yards rushing, 8 TDs

Kevin Walter is somewhat of a "Wes Welker" type of player and it helps that he gets to play across from Andre Johnson. He started 2009 injured and never seemed to get going. With the Texans offense still getting better I think that Walter could be in line for a good enough season to target him as a 4th or 5th WR in 2010.

-Projection: 60 receptions, 800 yards receiving, 5 TDs

Demeco Ryans has posted 4 straight 100+ total tackles in each of his 4 years in the league. As an IDP he ranks very highly, and he is on a defense that is getting better around him. Ryans is on the field most of the time and is a good bet for another 100+ tackle season.

-Projection: 130 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 forced fumbles

Even with the 4 game suspension, Brian Cushing is a top tier fantasy LB. He plays hard and has a great nose for the ball. Incredibly valuable in keeper/dynasty leagues as well given this will be his second season in the NFL. If he somehow goes undrafted try to pick up Cushing as a free agent. In the 12 games he can play he should post some great numbers.

-Projection: 80-100 total tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 2 forced fumbles

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

TEAM PREVIEW: New York Jets


9-7 in 2009

It is difficult to find a better team on paper than the New York Jets. They upgraded an already stellar defense. The offensive line is very, very good. Shonn Green showed the talent that he possesses. Mark Sanchez is coming into his second season and proved he can manage a game. Finally, the Jets got better at WR, stealing Santonio Holmes from the Steelers. They will be a very difficult team to beat this season.

The Jets rely on a ground and pound philosophy and with the two RBs they have, it works very well for them. Shonn Green carried the bulk of the load in the playoffs and did not disappoint one bit. Adding to the mix, the Jets brought in LaDainian Tomlinson after the Chargers cast him off last season. The 1-2 punch of Green and Tomlinson should cause fits for opposing defenses this season. On top of that the addition of Santonio Holmes will add some punch to the air attack, opposite Braylon Edwards. In his second season Mark Sanchez will need to take another step forward. Go from a game manager, to a play maker with the weapons that he has. He does not have to be a superstar but much progress and make some better throws. With all the weapons the offense has the O-Line seems to get overlooked. It is one of the best in the game and the number one reason why the Jets can run the ball so well. It is a physical group and they will maul people game in a game out. The Jets offense should be very solid this season, and that is not even the best part of the team.

The New York Jets have assembled one of, if not the most, feared defenses in the league. They will not only be difficult to run on with a way above average front 7, but might be near impossible to throw on. They have the top corner in the league, Darrel Revis, they added Antonio Cromartie, and drafted Kyle Wilson. Jim Leonard is a capable safety giving the Jets the best secondary in the league. Adding Jason Taylor should certainly help the pass rush and I look for him to play some outside linebacker in their 3-4 defense. Playing against this defense will be a nightmare for teams in 2010 and they should dominate from week to week.

Overall the Jets have assembled one of the best teams I have ever seen. But right now that is all on paper. What it ultimately comes down to is how they produce on the field. Rex Ryan will put his players in the right spots and he will let them know if they do not perform up to his standards. The New York Jets looked primed for a deep postseason run and I think they finish atop the AFC East in 2010.

-Prediction: 11-12 wins in 2010 - 1st place in AFC East

Monday, August 2, 2010

FANTASY ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers


Rashard Mendenhall will see the bulk of the carries in the Steelers offense, and Mike Tomlin should lean on him heavily with Roethlisberger being suspended for the first few weeks of the season. Mendenhall has a great deal of upside since he is so young, and last year proved he could carry a full workload. Mendenhall will probably go somewhere in round 2 depending on your league. Look for him to be a solid keeper player as well.

-Projection: 1,300 yards rushing, 10 TDs; 40 receptions, 350 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Hines Ward quietly posted another very good fantasy season, and I think he should be able to have another good season in 2010. Ward does all the little things right and works very hard at what he does. Even though he is getting older, he remains a viable number 2 WR in most formats. You should be able to get him late enough to see enough value at his draft position this year.

-Projection: 75 receptions, 1,100 yards, 7 TDs

Mike Wallace possesses enough potential to develop into a high-end number 3 or low-end number 2 WR this year. His incredible speed will compliment Ward's underneath receiving ability perfectly. With Santonio Holmes in New York, Wallace should secure the number 2 spot in Pittsburgh and should prove worthy of the promotion. Wallace looks even better in keeper/dynasty leagues so if you can get him in the mid-rounds I would pull the trigger on him.

-Projection: 65 receptions, 1,000 yards, 7-9 TDs

Ben Roethlisberger may miss the first 6 games of the 2010 season, which will hamper his stats in a big way. Personally, unless I could get him in the last few rounds, Roethlisberger will not even be on my radar. Could be a good waiver wire pickup but I don't think he is worthy of a mid-round draft pick.

-Projection: 2,800 yards passing, 18-20 TDs, 11-14 INTs; 100 yards rushing, 1 TD

Troy Polamalu's 2009 never got going due to a knee injury. When healthy he is an elite athlete and a feared hitter. If Polamalu can stay on the field he usually puts up nice stats in addition to tackles. He should bounce back after last season and is a nice option at the DB position.

-Projection: 75 total tackles, 15 passes defended, 5 INTs

James Harrison is a formidable LB on the Steelers defense, who gets enough tackles and sacks to make him a good choice for fantasy. If he gets drafted it should be in the later rounds as well. If you pass on the other high end LBs Harrison is not a bad choice.

-Projection: 85 total tackles, 10 sacks, 2 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles