Tuesday, August 17, 2010

TEAM PREVIEW: Minnesota Vikings


12-4 in 2009.

As another year of preseason games get underway, Brett Favre is still nowhere to be seen. Do I think he will play? Yes. He gives the Vikings the best chance at winning a Super Bowl. If he is not the QB under center this year the Vikings have no shot at winning the big game. The Vikings are still a solid team without Favre, however Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels simply put are not good enough. It remains to be seen just how long Favre will keep the Vikings locked in his grasp and the longer he does the more it will hurt this team.

With or without Brett Favre the Minnesota Vikings possess one of the most dominant RBs in the league in Adrian Peterson. Peterson is an incredible combination of size and speed, with the ability to run through or around defenders. Behind him is Toby Gerhart, another monster who can fun over just about anyone. With the backfield the Vikings possess, they have the ability to punish opposing defenses, with a true dog fight taking place in the trenches each week. Visanthe Shiancoe was a TD machine last year and solidified the TE spot for the Vikings. The WRs got a huge boost from previously disappointing Sidney Rice, as he smashed his totals from the previous 2 years. Percy Harvin adds that X-factor the Vikings were missing. Brad Childress moved him around the formations, allowing him to find some open space and utilize his speed and quickness. No matter who is under center, the Vikings have too much talent not to run the ball a good deal of the time. This offense will put up a good deal of points and will be difficult to deal with in the 4th quarter.

The Minnesota defense, from top to bottom, is very good. They have playmakers at each level and speed across the board. Up front Pat and Kevin Williams are a LBs dream. They are incredibly difficult to move off the line of scrimmage, disrupting the running game for a lot of teams. With the addition of Everson Griffen, the DEs are even better as Jared Allen and Ray Edwards are known to wreak havoc on opposing QBs. This stellar D-line allows the LBs to fly around and E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway take full advantage of it. This Vikings front seven will be very difficult to run on this season. The secondary is anchored Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin. Adding Lito Sheppard as a nickel should be beneficial and Benny Sapp will challenge him for playing time. Even the safety position is solid, with Madieau Williams being the stand out there. Overall, the Vikings defense should once again be very good. I expect a good amount of sacks and interceptions as well.

What the Vikings season will ultimately come down to is the QB. If Brett Favre comes back it remains to be seen if he can play at the level that he did in 2009. Without him the Vikings are still a playoff team but it would be very difficult to beat the best teams of the NFC with Tavaris Jackson manning the offense. Either way they will fight out the division with the Packers, making the two meetings between these teams very exciting.

-Prediction: 11-12 wins. Possible NFC North champs.

Monday, August 16, 2010

TEAM PREVIEW: Miami Dolphins

7-9 in 2009

The Miami Dolphins are an intriguing team. They have Ronnie Brown perpetually returning from a season-ending injury. They made the right choice in dispensing the over-reached draft bust Ted Ginn, Jr. They added a solid, solid playmaker in the center of their defense in Karlos Dansby. They have one of the youngest, most promising set of corners in the league in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. And they had the biggest non-Donovan addition to their offense in the league by trading for Brandon Marshall. The upside for this team is clearly there.

Most of the success of the Dolphins will rely on Chad Henne's shoulders. Henne started the most of the season last year after Chad Pennington (the aforementioned noodle-arm) went down. For the most part, he did a solid job. He has an absolute cannon for an arm, and showed that he was able to do a relatively strong job managing the offense as a full-time starter. He added a new dimension to the offense, making it harder for teams to stack the box against Miami's dominant running game. Look for Henne to improve his play modestly and for his numbers to improve drastically. Brandon Marshall catches anything thrown in his general direction. He'll add to Henne's passing yardage and is a dominant red zone threat as well. He'll also open up opportunities for fellow receivers like Devone Bess.

Marshall's impact gets compounded well projecting his effect on the running game. As the simple addition of Henne's big arm did last year, Marshall's presence in the passing game opens up opportunities for the already potent running game. Although Ronnie Brown is almost a lock to get injured again, Ricky Williams proved to be more than capable leading the charge as a feature back. The offensive line is solid, led by dominant left tackle Jake Long. This looks like the year where Miami's offense catches up to the play of its defense.

The defense in Miami has been one of its strong point in recent years. Their 3-4 scheme is designed to confuse opposing quarterbacks, creating pressure in unexpected areas. Although the defense is without its hallmark players in Joey Porter and long-time stud Jason Taylor, there is enough talent within the young players to fill these gaps. The linebacking corp still gets a marked improvement with the addition of free agent acquisition, Karlos Dansby. The man is just solid in all facets of his game. The Dolphins also has talented young CBs who aren't afraid to mix it in with run support. The identity of the Dolphins has never been in question: they are a punch you in the mouth type of team.

Still, Miami is a poor man's version of the New York Jets. And facing the Jets and the Pats twice a year isn't good for any team. I believe they have a slim chance to make the playoffs as a second wildcard team, but will probably finish behind both the Jets and Patriots in the division.

They'll finish 9-7 in 2010. Possible playoff birth.

Mike Vick?

So before I do my team and fantasy previews I wanted to talk about something that I have been hearing, especially after Friday night. I listen to 97.5 the fan almost everytime I am in the car and there is a lot of good content on there, however, there are many uneducated, idiots who feel the need to make those of us who listen dumber.

There have been a good deal of callers wanting Michael Vick to be the starter going into 2010. I even heard someone say the Eagles could win the super bowl with him and not Kolb. Seriously? Now I don't think Vick is a bad player but no chance he can get this team to the super bowl. He is not a fit for the west coast offense, nor is he what he used to be with the Falcons. Now I think he can certainly help the Eagles this year. He adds a nice dimension to an already elaborate skill set the Eagles have on offense, but Kolb gives the Eagles the best chance to win the big one.

Friday night I saw a great deal of positives that came from Kolb. He was accurate and hit receivers in stride. I also saw some growing pains. Threw into double coverage a few times but I will give him a pass. It was the first preseason game of the year. The biggest thing to look for is progression in the next couple games. Vick made some plays but he is not the ultimate answer for this team.

Eagles fans need to put this argument to rest. Unless he gets injured, Kolb is the starter and will be for years to come. Vick will play this year with the Eagles, and presumably move on after the season.

Anyone who thinks differently please enlighten me...I'll be more than happy to dispel your argument.

FANTASY ANALYSIS: Dallas Cowboys


I want to preface this article saying I do whatever I can not to draft Cowboys players. But if you feel the urge here is what to expect.

Tony Romo has turned himself into a pretty formidable fantasy QB. With Miles Austin emerging as a top pass catcher, Romo found a consistent target he liked throwing to. Now that he has Dez Bryant, Romo has an explosive playmaker, much of what the Cowboys thought Roy Williams would be for them. Tony Romo has become much more efficient and should continue to put up strong numbers in 2010. A deep backfield helps him as well, as teams will have to respect the run just as much as they do the pass. Romo is a top fantasy QB and will probably be the 4th or 5th QB to come off the board.

-Projection: 4,200-4,400 yards, 26-28 TDs, 13-16 INTs; 80-100 yards rushing, 1-2 TDs

Felix Jones more or less forced the hand of the Dallas Cowboys to become the starter. For some time it looked as if Wade Phillips wanted Marion Barber to be the feature back with Jones the "change of pace" guy. Now that Jones has shown off his full array of skills he has emerged as the Cowboys true number 1 back. He has good size and above average speed, which makes him very difficult to bring down. Early in the season Jones may lose some goal line carries to Barber, however I think he will getting the bulk of the workload if he can stay healthy.

-Projection: 1,000-1,100 yards rushing, 6-8 TDs; 20-30 receptions, 200 yards receiving, 1 TD

Until the arrival of Felix Jones, Marion Barber was a highly fantasy RB. Now he is reverted more to a back up role, presumably seeing the Cowboys goal-line carries. In deep leagues Marion Barber can be an asset but I do not think he is a starter. Watch to see how Jones plays and if he stays healthy, this will determine just how valuable Barber will be throughout the course of the season.

-Projection: 800 yards rushing, 6-8 TDs; 30 receptions, 200-250 yards receiving, 1 TD

Miles Austin came out of nowhere to burst onto the scene in 2009. In his final 2 weeks of the season, Austin totaled almost as many receptions as he had in 2007 and 2008 combined. Austin benefited from Roy Williams falling from out of grace with the Cowboys coaching staff and was the main focal point of the offense as teams keyed on Jason Witten. I, however, have not jumped on the bandwagon. While I do not see Austin being a total bust, I don't know if he is as good as his stats showed from last year. One more good season will have me convinced and I did project him higher than what I actually think, given the hype surrounding him going into 2010.

-Projection: 70-80 receptions, 1,100-1,200 yards receiving, 8 TDs

Dez Bryant was an incredible player at Oklahoma St. and it should carry over to the NFL. Bryant gets to work with an established QB and does not have to be the number 1 guy just yet. In keeper/dynasty leagues, Bryant could be a very valuable asset down the road. He should come off the board relatively late with a high upside going into 2010.

-Projection: 60 receptions, 800-900 yards receiving, 6-8 TDs

The TE position for fantasy generally touts only a hand full of high-end players, with Jason Witten always being one of them. His hands are some of the best in the business, with his physicality and speed making him one of the toughest TEs to cover. A PPR machine at TE, Witten should be able to boost his TD totals in 2010 with a formidable receiving tandem on the outside. Teams were blanketing Witten in the red zone because he was the one who could do the most damage. I think Witten will have another fine season and I expect his TDs to increase in 2010.

-Projection: 85-100 receptions, 1,000 yards receiving, 5-7 TDs

DeMarcus Ware is a beast in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys utilize him very well and he gives opposing offensive tackles fits with his pass rush. While he may not post a ton of tackles, Ware will get his sacks on a very good Cowboys defense. He will be one of the first DL to come off the board.

-Projection: 60-70 total tackles, 12-16 sacks, 5 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles

Keith Brooking has been a solid LB for years both with the Cowboys and Falcons. He has posted 100+ total tackles for 9 straight seasons and even at 34/35 he should be able to do it again. If a deeper league he may be a starting LB but more likely a backup in fantasy circles.

-Projection: 100-110 total tackles, 2 sacks, 5 passes defended, 1 INT

FANTASY ANALYSIS: Buffalo Bills


As my cohort so beautifully explains, the Buffalo Bills are merely one piece away from legitimacy. The only problem is that piece happens to be the most important one, and often difficult to accurately project to the NFL level. It's clear that the quarterback rotisserie of Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm can not get the job done. Edwards has the most experience, but is a NFL bottom 10 quarterback at best. Edwards is an option as a backup quarterback in only the deepest of fantasy leagues. His ability to read the defense and throw over the linebackers is severely lacking, relying far too often on the dump pass support of runningback studs Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, and now CJ Spiller. Edwards seems primed as a career backup, and will consistently throw just as many touchdowns as interceptions. Stay clear.
- Projections: 3,000 passing yards, 15 TDs and 15 INTs

#1 wide receiver Lee Evans is a playmaker wasted on a poor team. He saw his receiving totals drop off drastically last year due to Edwards injury and having noodle-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick behind the helm. Evans is a deep threat, and benefits greatly from the long ball. His TDs did spike last year, but his receptions and yardage saw a career low (44 rec: 612 yds). With the relatively competent Trent Edwards behind center, Evans should return back to fantasy relevance and you should be able to snag him in the later rounds. Project him as a solid backup for your squad.
- Projections: 65 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, and 6 TDs

The runningback situation for the Buffalo is great for the Bills, awful for fantasy owners. They currently have three runningbacks on their roster that could potentially be starters for other teams. Fred Jackson is the safest pick, but just broke his hand. Projecting him as a receiving runningback, this injury becomes a little more important. Still he should still be a solid backup as a runningback, just because of his yardage totals.
- Projections: 1,000 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs

CJ Spiller has the most upside of all the backs and could become the starter by the end of the season. He is a dynamic player and can score from any point on the field. Even in the crowded backfield, it is hard to imagine the Bills keeping him buried in the depth chart for too long.
- Projections: 700 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 350 receiving yards, and 6 total TDs

Marshawn Lynch is generally regarded as the odd-man-out. He showed flashes of brilliance in his first couple seasons, but has become a headache. His production dropped last year after his 4 game suspension. Look for him to wind up at the bottom of the depth chart by the season's end.
- Projections: 400 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 175 receiving yards, and 3 total TDs.

For IDP's, there are two solid options on the Bills. Middle linebacker, Paul Posluszny is a dominant force when healthy. He's a tackling machine and should rack up near 100 tackles during the course of a full season.
- Projections: 100 solo tackles, 25 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 2 INTs, 2 forced fumbles and 6 passes defended.

The other option is second year free safety, Jairus Byrd. Byrd is a ballhawking playmaker and should contribute as a nice option for your DB position.
- Projections: 45 solo tackles, 20 assisted tackles, 7 INTs, and 14 passes defended.

Friday, August 13, 2010

TEAM PREVIEW: Green Bay Packers


11-5 in 2009.

The Green Bay Packers have a very strong team. From top to bottom the Packers sport playmakers and are solid on both sides of the ball. The NFC North only has 2 good teams and when playoff time comes the Packers and the Vikings will be the teams emerging.

Aaron Rodgers has asserted himself as a top of the line NFL QB, and the Packers organization has given him the weapons to excel. Ryan Grant is an underrated RB and he can get the job done week in and week out. Looking at his stats, Grant is the type of back who needs his touches to get going. If the Packers give him the ball more he could be in for a career year. Brandon Jackson is very quick and has good hands, he is the perfect compliment for Grant's between the tackles running style. When it comes to WR the Packers are not loaded, but if Donald Driver can turn in another good performance, the team will be in good shape. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are not bad 3/4 options and Greg Jennings has something to prove after a disappointing 2009. Jermichael Finley has emerged as a difference-maker at TE and will help Rodger's as a sure handed safety valve this season. The offensive line added Bryan Bulaga at tackle. While he will most likely not start there this season, a starting spot at guard could be his. The Packers offense will put up a great deal of points and will be a difficult unit to stop in 2010.

The Packers have the perfect personnel for a 3-4 defensive scheme. At NT, Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji are giants, and will make running up the middle difficult for opposing teams. The DE position is a bit thin but that can be overshadowed with good, pass rushing OLBs. Clay Matthews has become very good at this and will be a major factor on this defense. A.J. Hawk has incredible talent and coupled with Nick Barnett, the middle of the Packers defense should be quite good. The secondary will be one of the better units across the league. Charles Woodson and Al Harris are great cover guys, with good DBs serving as their backups. The combo of Atari Bigby and Nick Collins is one of the better safety units in the league as well. This defense should be a great unit in 2010, allowing for the offense to be on the field a good amount of the time.

If Brett Favre does not come back to the Vikings, the Packers are the clear favorite to win the NFC North. On paper the Packers do not have a very difficult schedule, with a lot of winnable games, 4 of which are the Bears and Lions. If Favre comes back, the two teams will most likely battle for the division down to the end, with the other getting into the playoffs as the wild card. Overall, the Packers could easily be one of the last two teams still alive in the NFC.

-Prediction: 11-12 wins in 2010.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

FANTASY ANALYSIS: Philadelphia Eagles


DeSean Jackson exploded last season, following up on a strong rookie performance. Although small in stature, Jackson showed he can survive an NFL season, and do it quite well. He is the ultimate speedster and catches the deep ball very well. Over the course of 2009 Jackson did seem to disappear in a few game, something I attribute to the inaccuracy of Donovan McNabb. With an incredibly accurate QB in first year starter Kevin Kolb, I expect DeSean Jackson to run a variety of patterns, as Andy Reid will want to get him the ball whenever possible. Jackson has great breakaway speed after he gets his hands on the ball, quite evident in his punt return ability. Jackson could vastly improve on his totals last year, not only with Kevin Kolb throwing to him, but the other weapons around Jackson should take some of the looks in their direction. Overall, Jackson is a clear cut number 1, and if you can grab him around the late 2nd round or sometime in the 3rd you will be happy that you did.

-Projection: 70 receptions, 1,200-1,300 yards, 8-12 total TDs (return)

Kevin Kolb, by most, has been dubbed a "sleeper" pick for 2010. As a fantasy owner I salivate over that. Many first year started experience growing pains, something Kolb will have to go through, but he has so many weapons it is hard to envision him not having a great year. Kolb has said and done all of the little things right thus far and his confidence seems high. With one of the best receiving corps in the league he will have many options to throw to. Kolb is perfect for the west coast offense, and the Eagles offense should see much more consistency. What this all comes down to is Kevin Kolb has come into an incredible situation. He has all the weapons he could ask for, all he needs to do is deliver. I see a big year for Kolb. I like him as one of the later QBs to come off the board with a ton of upside.

-Projection: 4,000 yards, 25-28 TDs, 15-18 INTs

Brent Celek has blossomed into everything the Eagles had hoped L.J. Smith would be, an all around playmaking TE. Celek is not the fastest guy in the world, but if its possible to say he plays much faster than he actually is. After the catch, Celek seems to turn it up a notch. He can not only run over defenders but has some deceiving moves. In space Celek has become very difficult to take down. With a more accurate QB Celek could have even more upside. I expect Kolb to use him as a safety valve if he gets in trouble. Celek will come off the board a bit later than the other top TEs, but if you are targeting him make sure you do not wait too late.

-Projection: 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards, 6-8 TDs

When he was the starter, LeSean McCoy really was able to show what he could do. His biggest problem last season was breaking away from tackles. In the offseason, McCoy worked on improving his lower body strength. From what I have seen thus far in camp, his legs are much stronger. "Shady's" other strength is his hands. He is very Brian Westbrook like when it comes to the passing game and it is no secret the Eagles like to get their RBs involved in the air attack, especially screen plays. In PPR leagues I think McCoy gets rated a little higher. While he is certainly not yet a number 1 fantasy back McCoy comes with a great deal of upside and could be a steal as a keeper.

-Projection: 800-950 yards rushing, 6 TDs; 50 receptions, 400-500 yards receiving, 2-3 TDs

Jeremy Maclin has a great deal of upside going into 2010. Down the stretch Maclin showed off his skills as a receiver and Kolb starting only adds to his value. While he may not grab as many deep TDs that Jackson does, Maclin is still an all around threat. He was great after the catch when he played at Missouri and I expect more of the same this season. Maclin has worked hard to secure his spot as the number 2 receiver in the Eagles offense. His performance allowed the Eagles to cut Kevin Curtis, putting their faith in the second year pro. Right now Maclin is a solid number 3, but has as high a ceiling as any number 3 WR this year.

-Projection: 60-70 receptions, 850-1,000 yards, 5-7 TDs

Stewart Bradley returns to the middle of the Eagles defense this year, after tearing his ACL in preseason in '09. Before that Bradley seemed to be ready to burst onto the seen. Bradley possesses the size and speed any coach could want in a MLB. As long as he stays healthy Bradley should have a great season.

-Projection: 100 total tackles, 5 passes defended, 2 INTs, 2 forced fumbles

As a DL Trent Cole is a solid pick. Now that he has some help around him in Brandon Graham, Cole should be able to have more one-on-one battles with offensive lineman. In 2010 Cole should post double digit sack totals. Although he is not as high as some other defensive lineman, Cole is a good value pick at a position where sacks mean everything for fantasy.

-Projection: 50-60 total tackles, 13-15 sacks, 2 forced fumbles

Ernie Sims couldn't have found himself in a better situation after playing with the Lions for the first years of his career. He comes into a defense where LBs are used every way possible. Playing alongside Stewart Bradley does not hurt either. Sims should be the Eagles every down back and could post over 100 total tackles as he did with Detroit his first 3 years in the league.

-Projection: 100 total tackles, 3 passes defended, 1 INTs, 2 forced fumbles

Asante Samuel is as much of a route jumper as you can see at the DB position. He is quite good at it as well. Samuel tied for the league lead with 9 INTs last season, but I'm pretty sure he led the league in whiffed tackles as well. Simply put Samuel can't tackle anyone but he will pick the ball off. His fantasy numbers will be inconsistent but he should have a good number of picks again in 2010.

-Projection: 40 tackles (pushing people out of bounds counts), 6-8 INTs, 1-2 TDs

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

TEAM PREVIEW: Arizona Cardinals


10-6 in 2009. Won NFC West.


The 2009 offseason was not very kind to the Arizona Cardinals. Kurt Warner retired (hes not coming back sorry Mazzetti), Anquan Boldin was traded, Antrelle Rolle left, Karlos Dansby is gone, just to name a few. There are some new players like Joey Porter, and Alan Faneca but the additions do not even come close to the subtractions.

Without Kurt Warner at the helm, the once highly touted, Matt Leinart steps in. He will be given every opportunity to do well, because if he doesn't, it will likely mean he is not a Cardinal going into next season. He is due to make about $18 million in 2011 and the Cards will not pay that if they don't think Leinart can get the job done. Beanie Wells is an imposing figure as a RB at 6'2", 228lbs. The Cardinals figure to put a heavy workload on him to lessen the pressure on Leinart. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the best WRs in the league and it still remains to be seen what type of stats he will put up without Warner throwing him precision passes in 2010. I do have high expectations for Steve Breaston and Early Doucet. Both showed flashes of promise last year, and with increased roles could prove to be valuable play makers in this offense. None of the TEs are impressive, but the Cardinals offense uses them more as blockers than receivers. The offensive line is anchored by Levi Brown and should be a good enough unit for Leinart not to get killed behind.

The losses of Rolle and Dansby should prove quite large going into 2010. Joey Porter is still pretty good, but at this point he doesn't add quite as much as Dansby did. The defensive line will get a major boost with Dan Williams out of Tennessee and Darnell Dockett is still a solid player. I am undecided on the LB core. There are a few good players there, however outside of an aging Porter, no real game changers. It remains to be seen what the LBs can do this season. At the DB position, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a top caliber player, but it could be argued the Cardinals lack a true number 2 talent. This affects the rest of the depth chart as well, slotting 4 and 5 type DBs in the 2 and 3 spots. At safety Adrian Wilson is one of the better ones in the league but not having Rolle should have a major overall impact on the secondary.

What this all comes down to is the Arizona Cardinals lost a lot more in the offseason than they gained. The NFC West is not a very good division, which could inflate their record, but I see the 49ers coming out on top. As good as the rest of the NFC is, I don't see the Cardinals making the playoffs this season. Unless Matt Leinart is better than advertised I think the Cardinals are in for a tough year.

-Prediction: 7-8 wins in 2010.